Q2 Newsletter - 2024

Welcome! STP Raymond James is bringing you a digestible, rapid-fire overview of what we’re watching here in Q22024.

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ROUNDTRIP FOR US IPO MARKETS:

The amount of dollars in circulation continues to increase, while public equity markets and new availability is declining. Coupled with a clear departure from the Zero Interest Rate policy we experience from 2020-2021.

GOV. DEBT +$20tn since COVID:

A disorienting reality for some clients is this new regime in the USA where there’s bi-partisan support for money printing. A rate-of-change phenomena we watch closely as it continues to drive markets. With risk of sustained inflation as more dollars are put into circulation.

USA I.O.U’s RELATIVE TO GLOBAL I.O.U’s:

When a country, city, or company issues a bond, they are issuing debt secured by its future revenue for the most part. Although US Debt is on the rise, other countries are doing the same and we’ve comprised about 38% to 43% of the Global debt since 2003.

A BRIEF HISTORY ON INFLATION:

The USA, a consumer factory has been a net Importer for decades and perhaps other Countries are feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the decisions the USA is making monetarily – reflected in inflation of the products we import from them. They can take price.

HISTORIC MANUFACTURING CONTRACTION OVER:

With the tailwind to markets received via Government spending, not many have noticed we just bottomed out of a longer Manufacturing slump compared to the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. We just printed 16 consecutive monthly declines compared to the 14 consecutive printed in 2008.

Growth, Inflation, and Policy all drive Markets over the long-term and Manufacturing would fall into a core component of Growth which ultimately manifests itself in USA GDP.

Disclosures: Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors and are subject to change. There is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that the forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia and Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small-cap securities. Investing in smaller, newer companies generally involves greater risks and may not be appropriate for every investor. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. The performance mentioned does not include fees and charges, which would reduce an investor’s returns. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Companies engaged in business related to the technology sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. U.S. government bonds and Treasury notes are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury notes are certificates reflecting intermediate-term (2 - 10 years) obligations of the U.S. government. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of inflation compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Studies.

Material created by Raymond James for use by its advisors.