Q1 Newsletter - 2024

2023 RECAP:

The economy exceeded expectations, the consumer remained resilient, stocks soared to new highs, and after a late inning rally bonds were able to finish in positive territory.

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INVESTING THROUGH AN ELECTION YEAR:

‍It’s understandable to feel a bit wary as we approach 2024, but don’t let that cause you to stray from your investment strategy. Surprisingly, election years since 1950 have historically been less volatile than all other years. The rate of change in corporate earnings and economic growth will dictate returns for the year ahead.

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BIPARTISON SPENDING SUPPPORT:

‍Debt levels increasing faster than our country’s GDP, albeit US remains below average G7 debt to GDP levels. Whether or not this is sustainable for our children and grandchildren remain to be seen.

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MOMENTUM MATTERS:

‍Money invested when the market is at all-time highs has outperformed money invested on any given day. We hit an all-time high moments ago here in January 2024.

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SHIFTING TIDES:

Investors were rewarded for sticking with it after the market decline of 2022

MARKET CAP DOMINATION:

‍Magnificent they may be, they now comprise upwards of 30% of the broad US stock indexes, know what you own and why! Keep in mind market cap corresponds to the size of the company.

BREAKEVEN MATH:

‍Preserve and protect is a core tenant of portfolio management for clients. Remember the position size you put on matters in managing risk.

ALIGNMENT TO A PLAN (hover mouse over chart):

‍If skeptical of where the market is, zoomout, and bucket your portfolio to align with your short- and long-term spending needs. It’s been a whirlwind of a few years in markets perhaps it’s time to revisit your plan.

EXPIRATION OF THE TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT IN 2026

  • Reduction of individual income taxes are set to expire
  • Increase in standard deduction, elimination of personal exemption, and doubling of the child tax credit set to expire
  • Estate & Gift tax limits dropping near 50%
  • Certain business phaseouts eliminated for pass-through entities
  • Ask us about how these changes impact your retirement income forecast at your next review!
    Let’s be proactive.

TAX ME NOW vs. TAX ME LATER:

‍Where to deploy incremental savings for longer term investors matters.

Disclosures: Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors and are subject to change. There is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that the forecasts discussed will be realized. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit nor protect against loss. Economic and market conditions are subject to change. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia and Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 is an unmanaged index of small-cap securities. Investing in smaller, newer companies generally involves greater risks and may not be appropriate for every investor. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. An investment cannot be made in these indexes. The performance mentioned does not include fees and charges, which would reduce an investor’s returns. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors. Companies engaged in business related to the technology sector are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. U.S. government bonds and Treasury notes are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury notes are certificates reflecting intermediate-term (2 - 10 years) obligations of the U.S. government. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of inflation compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Studies.

Material created by Raymond James for use by its advisors.